NOAA’s July Oceans Report: Bad News for World Climate
By Chris Baskind in Environment
Once a month, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issues a report on the state of the world’s oceans. Generally, it’s for weather geeks — a big-picture survey of climate trends which may help forecasters make sense of regional events.
But July’s report (PDF download) is of broader interest for two reasons: It confirms the start of El Niño conditions and reveals that levels of sea ice in the Arctic are again approaching historic lows. Neither piece of news bodes well for world climate.
El Niño is underway
El Niño is the term applied for a period of above-normal surface ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific ocean. Since the ocean and atmosphere are connected, El Niño has a major effect on weather. Generally speaking, El Niño means more rain for southern portions of the United States and northern Latin America — and much less for the West Pacific.
The last El Niño started in 2006, resulting in a much quieter Atlantic hurricane season. That’s good news for vulnerable coastal communities. But the flip side is sharply reduced rainfall across large portions of Australia and Southeast Asia. Australia is already suffering from a multi-year drought. A protracted dry period is certain to encourage both natural wildfires and the intentional burn-off of native forest for agricultural development, particularly in Indonesia.
This means the release of millions of tons of carbon emissions. During the severe El Niño of 1997/98, between 3 and 9 billion tons of carbon dioxide was dumped into the atmosphere, accounting for up to 40 percent of global greenhouse emissions. That’s a big number. While the current El Niño is likely to milder and shorter, a sudden uptick in carbon emissions will speed global warming.
Arctic sea ice near record low levels
The July NOAA report also finds that sea ice levels in the Arctic declined rapidly in May, and in June were approaching 2007’s record lows. These findings are consistent with NASA data released today which indicates that the thickness of Arctic winter sea ice is also in rapid retreat.
Sea ice changes, 2004-2008. Thinner ice is darker in color.
This means that thin seasonal ice is beginning to replace the Arctic’s thick permanent cap. Overall ice coverage of the Arctic has been reduced by the equivalent of Alaska’s land mass — and this has happened in just five years.
So what does this all mean?
It’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the scientifically verified effects of a warming planet. El Niño events are becoming more frequent and severe. Persistent El Niño droughts are thought to have been the cause of millions of death from starvation in 19th century India and Southeast Asia. And while there are still no firm causal links between climate change and the onset of El Niño, the massive release of carbon dioxide from drought- caused fires will certainly contribute to continued warming.
The retreat of permanent Arctic sea ice is even more troubling, and its impact really lies outside modern human experience. In addition to the obvious changes it will bring to wildlife and weather patterns, Arctic warming raises concern for the billions of tons of methane locked beneath northern permafrost. Methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and the prospect of its widespread release dwarfs whatever human efforts are being made to reduce CO2 emissions.
So we’ll continue to keep an eye on the oceans. They’re the origin of all life on this planet — and perhaps our best indicator of its future.
Oceans image created by Alexandre Van de Sande / CC BY-SA 2.0
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